When the
marine forecast says "seas 3-5 ft", what
exactly does that mean?
Waves are measured from trough to
crest. Seas are the combination of both
locally generated wind waves and
distantly generated swell waves.
Specifically, seas may be derived using
the following formula where S is the
height of the swell waves and W is the
height of the wind waves.
SEAS =
Seas and waves are expressed in the
terms of the significant wave height,
the mean or average height of the
highest one third of all waves in a
swell train or in a wave generating
region. It approximates the value an
experienced observer would report if
visually estimating sea height. When
expressed as a range (e.g. seas 3-5 ft),
this indicates a degree of uncertainty
in the forecast and/or expected changing
conditions (not that all waves are
between 3-5 ft). Generally, it is
assumed that individual wave heights can
be described using a Rayleigh
distribution.
Example: Significant Wave Height = 10
ft
1 in 10 waves will be larger than 11
ft
1 in 100 waves will be larger than 16
ft
1 in 1000 waves will larger than 19
ft
There are occasional reports of
"rogue" waves of an even greater ratio
Therefore, assuming a wave period of
8 seconds, for a significant wave height
of 10 feet, a wave 19 feet or higher
will occur every 8,000 seconds (2.2
hours).
The danger presented to a vessel is a
function of wave steepness as well as
wave height and is unique to each
vessel. In general for small vessels,
for a given wave height the danger
increases as the wave period decreases.
Below is a table under development
within the National Weather Service to
assist forecasters in identifying sea
conditions which may be of danger to
vessels with a closed cockpit
configuration of ~100 feet or less. The
table is intended to be instructional
only and the danger presented by waves
to your own vessel may be quite
different.
Reference:
National Weather Service Marine
Forecasts FAQ
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